The Tuesday NBA schedule features eight games, and none with more drama around it than Jimmy Butler returning to Miami with the Warriors (-5.5, 216.5) for the first time since being traded. After months of issues, the Heat traded Butler, so will he be highly motivated for a standout performance in Miami on Tuesday? The NBA Jimmy Butler odds list his over/under for total points at 20.5 and 21.5 depending on the betting sites you use, so should you play his points in NBA player props? Butler is more than just a scorer, so his points + rebounds + assists over/under of 34.5 could also draw betting interest for Tuesday NBA prop bets. You can also find a +900 payout on DraftKings Sportsbook for Butler to record his fourth triple-double of the season.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet NBA player props on Tuesday.
Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+115)
Even the model projects Butler to come out with a vengeance. Butler, a five-time All-Defensive Team selection, averaged 1.7 steals per game over his five-plus seasons with Miami and he's brought that defensive prowess over to Golden State. Butler has multiple steals in two of his last four games and he had two steals and two blocks against the Raptors on Thursday. Throw in the personal motivations and the chance to get plus-money on this play on Bet365 at +115 odds and this could be a viable play.
Mikal Bridges Over 21.5 points + rebounds (-105)
Bridges had 27 points and six rebounds against the Wizards on Saturday and he's scored more than 20 points in four of eight games without Jalen Brunson (ankle) to often reach this number even without rebounds. But still, Bridges is averaging 4.1 rebounds per game over that span to aid this play. The model projects Bridges at 20.3 points, in part due to being more aggressive from deep, for Tuesday. Bridges is 13 for 32 (40.6%) on triples while taking at least three 3-point attempts in each of his last seven games. His number has climbed from 20.5 to 21.5 and DraftKings currently has the best price at -105 odds.
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 rebounds (+116)
VanVleet has gone Over this total in four of his last six games and he's averaging 4.3 rebounds per game over eight contests this month. The model projects him to reach four rebounds on Tuesday and he's averaging 3.9 rebounds per game over the entire season, so the model views a chance to get plus-money odds here as great value. VanVleet played 42 minutes on Sunday and he's played at least 35 minutes in three straight games. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best price at +116 odds.
Miles Bridges Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Bridges has gone Over this total in nine of his last 12 games, including with 17 points, 13 rebounds and four assists against the Heat on Sunday. The 27-year-old is averaging 20.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game this season, including 24.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists over 12 games this month, with both averages putting him over 30 PRA totals. The model is projecting him for just over 32 PRA after two double-doubles over his last three games and his number has risen from 29.5 to 30.5 on sportsbooks.
Stephon Castle Over 7.5 rebounds + assists (-130)
Betting anything involving Castle's assists was a bit of a roller coaster over the last 10 days, but given he had at least seven assists in two of those five contests, including 14 assists against the 76ers on Friday, he has the potential to nearly eclipse this number on assists alone. Adding the rebounds into this play provides a solid floor as he has at least five rebounds in three of his last four games. The model projects Castle to play around 28 to 32 minutes and when he's done that, Castle has gone Over 7.5 rebounds + assists in 13 of 17 games. Some sportsbooks have already moved Castle's number to 8.5, but DraftKings Sportsbook currently still has him at -130 odds at 7.5.
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