2025 NFL Draft: Re-grading every first-round QB pick of last 15 years, from Jayden Daniels to Tim Tebow

The 2025 NFL Draft is around the corner, and no position is poised to get more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite one, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt that several will try to unearth the next superstar starting April 25, with the Tennessee Titans on the clock first at No. 1 overall.

At least two, maybe three, quarterback prospects are widely expected to come off the board on Day 1 of this year's draft. Miami's Cam Ward is the consensus favorite to lead the 2025 class, even touting his own value as a potential No. 1 pick of the Titans. Then there's Shedeur Sanders, son of former NFL star Deion Sanders, from Colorado. And both Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) and Jalen Milroe (Alabama) have drawn looks for their upside.

What can history tell us about how many of these first-round quarterback investments will actually pan out? We're glad you asked. We reviewed every single Day 1 selection over the last 15 years and assigned "grades" for each:

1. Home run: A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and/or potential
2. Solid result: A good, maybe even great, quarterback who's still got big hurdles to clear
3. Mixed result: A quarterback who flashed but, for whatever reason, did not/is not panning out
4. Incomplete: A quarterback who's yet to fully prove himself
5. Miss: A clear flop as a short- or long-term starter

Some of the quarterbacks straddle the lines more than others, and we'd be remiss if we didn't partially excuse some of the misses for their situations (you can't control where you're drafted, after all). But let this recap paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with the hunt for a star signal-caller:

Daniels looks a lot more like a home run than a solid result, fresh off a silky-smooth rookie season in which his calmness matched his dual-threat dynamism for Washington, but we've seen Year 1 stardom give way to Year 2 dips before, so let's be cautious. Nix quietly approached 30 scores through the air as a rookie despite leading a limited Denver lineup. Williams might be best positioned for a major leap now that Chicago has actually supplied him with a competent offensive line, plus a new coach in Ben Johnson.

2023

Young looked totally lost for the first year and a half of his career, then suddenly settled in under coach Dave Canales to close his second season. Stroud was an elite pocket passer as a rookie, but his timing and touch went sideways amid an injury-riddled setup in 2024. Richardson might still change his label, but entering Year 3, he's barely made it through 15 games healthy, completing just 50% of his throws, hence the Colts' decision this offseason to sign Daniel Jones as summer competition.

2022

Pickett had the misfortune of operating a sluggish Steelers offense with shoddy protection for much of his two years at the helm, and he was quickly dumped via trade to the Philadelphia Eagles in favor of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, both of whom have already packed their own bags out of Pittsburgh. Perhaps Pickett will get another crack at a top gig in Cleveland after the Browns acquired him this offseason.

2021

Lawrence passed the eye test with flying colors in 2022, his first under Doug Pederson. He's barely stayed upright or controlled the ball since then, resulting in Liam Coen's arrival as a new coach this offseason. Hopefully his electric arm finally settles down and the supporting cast chips in. Wilson was both erratic and painfully conservative in two years before the Jets replaced him with an aging Aaron Rodgers. Lance flashed physically but played just eight games in San Francisco before injuries opened the door for Brock Purdy. Fields' aerial decision-making was hit or miss, but he at least often kept Windy City competitive with his big-play mobility, despite a lowly setup. Jones was a fair mid-range passer as a rookie, but he regressed amid poor conditions and is now on his second stop as a backup elsewhere.

2020

Burrow is easily one of the top five quarterbacks in the game, offering razor-sharp precision and pocket presence, fresh off an MVP-caliber outing, though injuries have sidelined him for long stretches before. Tagovailoa has enjoyed stretches of video-game production as Miami's point guard, but he's struggled mightily on big stages and missed even more time. Herbert is an even fuller package as a pocket passer, but not so unlike Tagovailoa, he's also withered in some big moments. Love followed Aaron Rodgers' early footsteps, taking over Green Bay's gig after three years on the bench. Injuries and turnover sprees plagued him in 2024, but in just two years as a full-timer, he's showcased an All-Pro-caliber arm, including in the postseason.

2019

At various points along his journey, Murray has flashed the qualities of a home run, pairing a rocket arm with scurrying legs. His reliability and availability are always in question, however; there might not be a more mercurial talent at the position. Jones went from clumsy victim of circumstance to underrated dual threat and back again from 2021-2024, until the Giants finally granted his request to escape the franchise last fall. The late Haskins made just 13 starts in two seasons before his demotion and release.

2018

Mayfield reintroduced the Browns to quarterback moxie and reinvented himself as a figurehead for a run-first offense, but he left after four battered and turnover-prone seasons, resurfacing in rejuvenated form with the Buccaneers in 2023. Darnold endured a steeper dip into skittish tendencies for a porous Jets team. Allen, meanwhile, went the opposite direction, starting as a wayward gunslinger and evolving into a big-armed, big-bodied MVP type, though he's still seeking a defining title bid. Rosen never stood a chance, flopping as a lean, limited pocket passer before Arizona dumped him after a single season. Jackson is one of the NFL's superhuman talents; he's had durability and postseason questions, but his world-class speed and improved passing touch always has Baltimore among the AFC's most formidable contenders.

2017

Trubisky never got great help from his staff, but his ill-timed decisions helped accelerate a move to backup jobs elsewhere. Watson once looked like a superstar-in-the-making, but he was Houston's starter for just three and a half seasons, sitting out all of 2021 while seeking a trade and then facing dozens of lawsuits for alleged off-field misconduct before his trade to the Browns. Mahomes has long since cemented himself as one of the greatest picks of all time, racking up three Super Bowl victories, three NFL MVPs and seven straight AFC title-game appearances as an acrobatic standard-setter under center.

2016

Goff experienced basically three careers in one with the Rams, starting haplessly amid a rebuild, then showcasing All-Pro precision for Sean McVay's first Super Bowl bid before a regression that led to his Lions relocation. Wentz is a tragic case of what could have been; his 2017 MVP candidacy was truly dynamic and helped pave the way for Nick Foles' ultimate Super Bowl triumph, but post-injuries, he never fully reined in his aggressiveness. Lynch made just four starts in Denver before his exit.

2015

Winston's gung-ho approach was memorable, but it doomed him more than it served him; he threw 88 picks in 70 starts before the Buccaneers turned to Tom Brady and instantly won a Super Bowl. Mariota also made it five years with his original club, but he too was happily ushered out by the end, struggling to stay in the lineup while leaning on his legs. Both have since settled in elsewhere as veteran No. 2s.

2014

Bortles flirted with legitimacy, throwing 35 scores in his second season and helping the Jaguars to an AFC title game in 2017, but his aggressiveness led to 75 picks in 73 starts. Manziel flamed out on and off the field after a tumultuous college career, making just eight frenetic starts over two seasons before his unceremonious exit. Bridgewater is easily the most accomplished of the trio, carving out a long run as a journeyman placeholder, but he managed just two solid but wholly unspectacular seasons in Minnesota, where he leaned on Adrian Peterson before a knee injury derailed his future.

2013

Widely considered the only promising quarterback of an especially thin class, Manuel battled injuries and inaccuracy, quickly losing starting duties to both Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. He went 6-11 making just 17 starts over four seasons before relocating as a backup.

2012

As Peyton Manning's successor, Luck was one of the best field generals in the game when active and healthy. Shoulder injuries and his abrupt retirement at age 29 robbed the Colts of a potential Hall of Fame career. But he still led four playoff trips and an AFC title-game appearance with gaudy aerial production. Griffin was a rookie phenom thanks to his smooth scrambling but faded almost instantly after knee injuries, giving way to the more reliable Kirk Cousins. Tannehill revived his career with the Titans, but only after an injury-riddled seven-year slog in Miami. Weeden, who entered at age 28, threw 26 picks in 20 starts over just two seasons with Cleveland.

2011

Newton could arguably fit into "mixed result," seeing that he was a battered, below-average passer for the latter half of his initial nine-year run with the Panthers. His first five years, however, were game-changing for Carolina, peaking with a 2015 MVP run and Super Bowl bid as a supersized dual threat. Injuries were even harsher to Locker, who never played more than 11 games in a season, and retired after just four years. Gabbert got little protection in Jacksonville and saw his playing time decline in three straight seasons -- his only three with the Jags. Ponder had 36 picks in 36 starts for Minnesota.

2010

Bradford is tough to separate from his circumstances; injuries behind an awful Rams front wrecked his knees and shortened his St. Louis tenure to three-and-a-half active seasons, but when upright, he was an ascending pocket passer who kept a bad team in the mix. Tebow had real flashes of something special, briefly captivating the league with bulldozing legs and inexplicable late-game heroics, but he never got in rhythm throwing the ball in just two seasons with the Broncos.

Final tally

Over the last 15 years, there have been 49 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

If you combine home runs and solid/mixed results, that's 17 of 49, or roughly 35%, who at least left some level of positive impact. Maybe that's not an awful hit rate, considering the volatility of picks at every position. It's also not great! And it's still including a wide range of outcomes; Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their success was short-lived in their original homes, even though the former is now considered an above-average starter for the Buccaneers, his fourth NFL team.

The biggest takeaway (no surprise) is that it's hard to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round. Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round quarterback picks per year. And over that entire span of 15 years, at least according to our rough assessment, only six quarterbacks total have gone on to become "home runs," including future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes and fellow AFC heavyweights like Josh Allen.

So if you're preparing to go all in for the next hotshot under center, make sure you've done your homework, and/or ensured your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support him! It's probably not a coincidence that so many quarterbacks provide mixed or disappointing results when the teams that draft them tend to be in dire straits, hence their pathway to a Day 1 draft-day investment at the position. The best-case scenario, as it was with Mahomes, is when a present contender has an opportunity to plan for the future, adding a young prospect to an already-well-supported lineup. But that, of course, is easier said than done.

Otherwise, you may be angling to take another swing at the position in another few years, restarting the cycle.