Before you write off Smith (again), keep in mind that he did much better than expected in 2022, has a deep receiving corps and landed a brand-new offensive playcaller. Smith fell from 21.4 to 17.8 Fantasy points per game (six points for passing TDs) in 2023 despite adding touted rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba into the offense. His completion rate dropped but his off-target throw rate was still fine. He had a solid yards-per-attempt average year-over-year and a slightly better interception rate. But the lack of completions and a dip in touchdown rate (5.2% to 4.0%) made him a Fantasy bust. The Seahawks new offense will be led by Ryan Grubb, who pioneered the Washington Huskies offense for the past two seasons and does have an aggressive tendency to dial up pass plays downfield. It will also help that Seattle's offensive line should be healthier and thus better than it was for the majority of last year. Smith actually has bounce-back potential, but he also has a legit threat to his gig in Sam Howell if he starts slow in 2024. You won't need to spend serious draft capital on Smith -- he might not even get picked in typical one-QB formats -- but he does have mild appeal as a QB2 in Superflex/two-QB leagues in the same tier as Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr.
Author of one of the greatest script flips of the 2022 season, Smith was met with cautious optimism by fantasy managers who were unsure of his ability to duplicate a top-five fantasy finish at QB again in 2023. As expected, Smith's numbers regressed. Most disappointing was his dip in scoring, as the 33-year-old passed for just 20 TDs last season (down from 30). Smith finished the season just inside the top 20 fantasy producers at the position, averaging a little more than 15 fantasy points per game. He figures to rebound slightly with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb bringing an uptempo approach and further integration of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the team, but remains best utilized as a QB2.
Pass Yds | Pass TD | Pass Int | Rush Yds | Rush TD |
---|---|---|---|---|
3771.9 | 24.1 | 11.3 | 192.2 | 1.5 |
Pick 15.03
Pick 16.09
Pick 17.02
Pick 8.06
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