Joe's Fantasy Football State of the Union 2024

Welcome to my 2024 Fantasy Football State of the Union address. As drafts are underway and the season is right around the corner, I'd like to share some of my thoughts, insights, and opinions on what we've seen so far.

Wide Receivers Are Flying Off The Board
In the first round, you can expect roughly 7 wide receivers and 5 running backs to be taken. After two rounds, there should be 12 receivers taken to 11 backs with Travis Kelce thrown in the mix at TE. The position is deep this year, but to see the playoffs, you'll need at least one or two high-end receivers. For those of us who have played for many years (ahem), we grew up focused on the RB position. In fact, it wasn't uncommon to draft three straight running backs so the flex spot would be filled as well. Most NFL teams are passing more these days and employing the RBBC (running back by committee) approach. The game is changing. If you wait on the wide receiver position this year, you're likely to be disappointed come playoff time.

If you are not getting one of the Top 20 guys, you're odds of success come down significantly. Take a peek at the Wide Receiver Tiers to get a feel for the kind of guys that you're going to want to draft on your teams. There is still some great value in the Tier 4 guys like DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, and even rookies like Malik Nabers, but they are much better suited to be your WR2/3 than your WR1. We have to remember that if they are our WR1, we're putting some unnecessary risk into our downline spots with guys like Rashee Rice, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Watson to significantly outplay their ADP. It may be tough to count on consistent production from them each week.

Change is Constant
Keep an eye on players rising up and down the ADP by checking out our free Movers & Shakers over the last 21 days. No surprise to see Sam Darnold rocket up 70 spots after the Vikings lost J.J. McCarthy for the season. We're also seeing guys like David Montgomery (RB, DET) climb the ranks with Jahmyr Gibbs questionable for Week 1. On the flip side, Russell Wilson has dropped almost 22 spots in our rankings after a lackluster preseason and competing with a capable starter in Justin Fields. A lot of NFL storylines end up manifesting themselves in the ADP data.

Value is Key
The Oracle of Omaha, billionaire Warren Buffett, is famous for saying that "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." The concept is a core one not only to our DFS Optimizer, but it's key to excelling in your fantasy football league. Ask anyone who drafted Puka Nacua last year how much value plays into a championship. Our Fantasy Football Draft Values application compares every player's ranking to their associated ADP value to find players among the data that are ranked higher than where you can get them in your draft. Players like Adam Thielen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer are going two full rounds later than where they're currently ranked. That means that if you are in need of a WR3/4, target these guys later in the draft - great value for what you're paying.

Saints TE Taysom Hill is a great example to further demonstrate this. He currently has a Draft Value of 20 meaning that he's being taken almost 2 full rounds later than where he's ranked. For many fantasy owners, he's a backup TE despite finishing 7th among all tight ends last season. If you wait on the TE position and can handle some inconsistency, Hill presents great value for where he's being drafted.

Running Backs Still Matter
There is plenty of talk around the industry about the decline of the running back position. Depending upon the source, it's either a wake up call or a lot of noise. You may have heard the terms "Zero Running Back" and "Hero Running Back". Both are strategies to deal with the RB position. We've written about them both before, and some of the best projected teams that we've experienced tend to employ the Hero RB strategy which essentially says to be sure to pick a Tier 1 or Tier 2 RB within the first few rounds.

As we've written before, taking a top-end RB with your first or second pick opens up some really interesting possibilities. It gives you that one bell cow while giving you flexibility with the receiver or tight end position. Looking at ADP data, let's assume you take CeeDee Lamb or Ja'Marr Chase with your first round pick. You could pair him with someone like Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, or Isiah Pacheco in the second. If you took Christian McCaffrey with the first pick, you could pair him with someone like Davante Adams, Drake London, or Chris Olave in the second. Either option sets you up well with solid anchors in those positions.

Some of the running backs that I'm targeting later in the draft include Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Jaylen Warren, and Austin Ekeler. Brown is in an interesting situation with Joe Mixon gone and Zack Moss atop the depth chart. Don't be surprised if this turns into a classic 1A/1B situation with Brown eating into Moss's workload. Jerome Ford has some value early in the season while the Browns get Nick Chubb back into form. Jaylen Warren is one of those guys who showed flashes of big play potential last year. If Najee Harris struggles like he did last season, Warren is in a great spot to pick up more work. Finally, when the Commanders traded Jahan Dotson to the Eagles, outside of Dyami Brown, it could be Ekeler who sees a few more targets each week. He's being drafted as if he's finished, but there's still some gas left in that tank and you get him late in your draft.

If your roster calls for at least two starting RBs, ignoring that position feels like a flawed strategy.

Quarterbacks Matter...at the Right Price
With a pass-happy league, the QB spot is primed to deliver big points each week. You'll see that from the Tier 1 guys like Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts, but according to ADP data, you're going to spend a 2nd or 3rd-round pick on them. In Superflex (and certainly some home leagues) you'll frequently see them come off the board in the first round. Normally I'm not spending that high of a pick for one of these guys, but in the draft this week for the Fantasy Nerds League of Champions, I did grab Hurts in the 3rd round. It's the only share I have of him this season, and third round felt appropriate. I genuinely like that team and will be interested to see if that feeling remains at the end of the season.

If you wait on the quarterback position, I like targeting Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and Jayden Daniels.

Tight Ends...It's a Role of the Dice
For many years, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski was a tier unto himself. While Travis Kelce has fit that bill over the past few years, you'll need to pay a second round price to have him on your team. If Sam LaPorta or Mark Andrews fall to you, that's a win. If they don't, you can wait.

One guy that I have been targeting is Trey McBride. The Cardinals lead the NFL in tight end targets per game, and for the second half of the season, it was McBride who led the team in targets. Targets create opportunity and they're not always plentiful at the TE position. That's great news for a guy like McBride whose rapport with QB Kyler Murray has only gotten better. He'll remain an important component to this offense and you shouldn't have to spend a draft pick until the 5th round to get him.

As you might imagine, I draft a lot. Thus far, I have significant shares of players like Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and Pat Freiermuth. From a projections standpoint, these guys are projected to deliver a point or less per week than Trey McBride who is going earlier. In fact, once McBride comes off the board (assuming I didn't get him), that's when I'll start looking at drafting a TE. There's great value in the tight ends ranked 5th through 10th.

BONUS: Target T.J. Hockenson as your backup. He's likely to miss half the season, but with his current ADP, he presents tremendous value here. Hopefully, you'll get an elite TE to finish the second half of the season strong.

Undervalued Players
One key to winning consistently in the draft room is by finding value picks. We've even introduced a new Draft Value Finder tool. When I created our NerdRank algorithm, it was designed to reward and weight those sites who publish the most accurate rankings and projections. I wanted to favor those who are demonstrably more accurate by position. When we bump up those consensus rankings to ADP data, we can start to find some diamonds in the rough.

For example, here are some of the players that are criminally undervalued in my opinion - sometimes to the tune of up to several full rounds.

• Brian Robinson, Jr
• David Montgomery
• Mike Evans
• James Conner
• Amari Cooper
• Joe Mixon
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Xavier Worthy
• Dalton Kincaid
• Tyler Lockett

James Conner is interesting as he's a year away from the dreaded 30-year cliff, but what I really like about him is his usage. He's got little/no competition for targets and has finished as an RB1/2 in points per game each of the last two years. With a healthy Kyler Murray and a revamped offense, you can bet that the Cardinals are going to lean on him. Yes, he'll miss time (as most backs do), but he presents a lot of value for where you're drafting him.

Joe Mixon is similar in that regard. He's got a new team in Houston, and while he has been inconsistent with the points delivered each week, he's been a great draft value this season. I have Mixon as a high-end RB2 in multiple leagues and I'm more than OK with that. He's not the most efficient runner, but the volume is what keeps him in contention. The offensive line in Houston is above average and this could be a big year for him.

Watch Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy establish himself as a bonafide starter - especially if Marquise Brown misses time to start the year. His speed and playmaking ability are evident to anyone who has watched more than a few minutes of him on the field. What intrigues me the most about him is that his fantasy ceiling is through the roof. I've heard him referred to as another DeSean Jackson and that would be just fine with me.

I've consistently seen Amari Cooper get passed over in drafts, and I can't necessarily fault anyone for doing that. What I propose is looking at it from the glass is half full perspective. The Browns had a revolving door at QB last year and Deshaun Watson left a lot to be desired with his game play. Still, through it all Cooper maintained 21% target share and finished as a WR2. He'll have to compete with Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy for targets, but neither is a true threat. Don't be surprised to see him flirt with a borderline WR1 finish.

Overvalued Players
Future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers is back under center after playing for just 1 minute and 34 seconds last season. That's after coming off one of his worst fantasy seasons the year prior. Even with the change in scenery, it's difficult to imagine Rodgers reclaiming QB1 form. In Superflex leagues, he makes for a fine QB2. In one-QB leagues, he's not the guy that I want to pencil into my lineups. Given his current ADP, I don't have a single share of Aaron Rodgers in any form.

Don't hate me, but I'm just not buying a ticket on the De'Von Achane train this year. Achane's speed is impressive and he's ALWAYS a big play away each time he touches the ball, but it's statistically unlikely that he sees nearly 8 yards per carry this season. That kind of efficiency is ridiculously difficult to repeat, especially with Raheem Mostert commanding a share of the workload and Jaylen Wright nipping at both of their feet. Remember his 4-touchdown game against Denver last year? Again - hard to try and repeat that. He could certainly flirt with double digit touchdowns again, but it's unlikely that he sees another 11-score season. His touchdowns started to drop off as the year went on when opposing teams were able to start game planning for him. They've now had an entire offseason to do that. Achane will still be a productive back, but he's overvalued in my opinion for where he's being taken.

Safe Players
We love to preach the mantra of mixing safety and sexy in our draft strategy, but the earlier rounds should be where we focus our safety interests.

If you're fortunate enough to have the first pick, Christian McCaffrey is the right choice. No other player combines the rushing and receiving upside quite like he does. He's averaged 21 fantasy points each of the last two seasons and the offense runs through him. His fantasy projections rival QBs in terms of points delivered. Even in Superflex leagues, he's the top RB taken and generally within the first three picks. Injuries remain a concern but the consensus #1 should be a safe pick.

An argument could be made that CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill could be the #1 pick in your draft. Both guys are target hogs who lead the league in receptions. Lamb consistently put up more than 100 yards over the final 12-game stretch last year. We're hoping his contract situation doesn't derail him, but right now that's not stopping up from taking him right after CMC comes off the board. Hill deserves to be in that discussion as well. The Cheetah has massive big play potential every time he steps onto the field. His YAC is one of the best in the NFL and he's a focal point of this offense. Both players are the equivalent of PPR gold.

Sleepers
I've always found the term "sleeper" to lack consistent definition across our industry. In its most basic form, a sleeper is someone who has the potential to significantly outperform their ADP. There are always a handful and the guys that I'm targeting as sleepers this year include:

• QB Kirk Cousins, Falcons - With a good receiving corp and a stellar backfield, Cousins can easily outperform his current ADP. Great backup option for your squad.
• TE Isaiah Likely, Ravens - In addition to death and taxes, it's unavoidable that Mark Andrews will miss time. Likely has already shown what he can do in Andrews' absence.
• RB Jonathan Brooks, Panthers - Believe it or not, but Chuba Hubbard was a Top 10 RB over the last seven games in 2023. There's not much to like about this offense, but Brooks has that potential. Just be patient with him as he gets worked back into the rotation.
• RB Rico Dowdle, Cowboys - The backfield in Dallas is thin even with returning veteran Ezekiel Elliott. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dowdle eat into Zeke's lunch later this season.
• WR Dontayvion Wicks, Packers - While we'd rather have him in our Best Ball lineups, Wicks could surprise many and finish the season as the Packers top receiving option.
• RB Jaylen Warren, Steelers
• WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs
• WR Josh Palmer, Chargers
• WR Rashid Shaheed, Saints

Good luck in your drafts! Let's bring home a championship!

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